Sunday, December 27, 2009
rationalize and integrate!
Rationalize and integrate Indian economy
By G. Balakrishnan PhD., as public policy analyst
UPA 1 disbursed 11,353 crores to AP, 9000 crores to UP, 8900 crores to Maharashtra and also to various States ? Gujarat, Bihar, HP, MP, to alleviate the agriculturist problems as he was suffering from draught, failure of monsoons, bank loans and the like. Of which some States reached out the help some others did not spend the money and if at all spent, part of it has gone to pockets of politicians and similarly interested groups. And yet a large part of it reached poor beleaguered agriculturist. That had reflected for second time chance given to UPA 2 to form government of India.
This shows agriculture is dominant subject in India. This gives a lesson to government makers that they should allocate a lot of funds for agriculture and related activities, as agriculture only provides life line for all the people of India. So Agriculture development is a most important priority. Yes, it needs abundant water resource, at all costs as India essentially an agricultural economy a natural phenomenon, right from Indus valley civilization some 3500 years ago. Even today the same story is to be.
Agricultural Village is the basic unit of this economy. Lands in the hands of agriculturist should not be sold out, if agriculture is to thrive. This means no Spl. Economic Zone or Spl. Export zone can be developed unless these zones are created for agriculture efficiencies. You cannot think of agriculture sans water, and it cannot be manufactured in factories but provided by rains ? monsoons and similar activities of nature like evaporation of sea water and condensation after forming clouds and carried by winds to different locations by low depression and the like. But if monsoons fail, rivers will go dry and perennial rivers by melt of icecaps on mountains get water and these ice caps melt by excessive heat generated by scorching sun or pollution, but you will deplete this perennial source, sooner, thanks to your own green house effects. So in this regard you will have to take care to ensure that you will not pollute or increase CO2 emissions.
Yes you do a lot of CO2 emissions due to many factories AND CHEMICAL PLANTS and thus damaging the climatic conditions. You need anyway food commodities more than anything else after all you have to live. The source is agriculture. But unfortunately you had forgotten basic principles involved.
If we develop agriculture well then you can get bumper crops and that is the life giving substance.
Needed water has to be pumped by booster pumps from river estuaries those are water balance likely to be lost, after uses in the river courses, before entering into seas, can be retrieved, and for this retrieval you will have to create massive pipelines system in the lines of oil and gas pipelines.
Yes it is the best alternative to connecting rivers which is just utopian thought. Further connecting rivers is also a geological problem for it might cause tremors and earthquakes and the like, as density of water when increases naturally it is heavy weight displacement on certain landscapes.
Pipes are the alternatives to transport water yes it calls massive investments financially. You have to generate funds and now we have replaced gold standards and hence it is easier to monetize and you monetize for bail outs of corporate and banks but if your monetizing is centered around agriculture naturally surplus food you can export and create balancing with monetization and your debt servicing duly controlled and your currency is restored at your earliest, to the position of stability, after all, all over the world there is need of food as there are draughts and failures of monsoons.
You will allocate resources for agriculture centered education, at all levels while other existing patterns remain in place, that you can dispense different education relevant to your needs of agricultural economy. This is what Mahatma Gandhi said Basic education but we never heeded his advice but we realize the need of the same after 6o + years of your independence.
We are still touting on irrelevant in education while we need our needs based education and you will increase more and more number of jobless people; if you do not care as usual and that will not be of any use but will trigger revolts among the educated youth, realizing that their education has no meaningful opportunities for them, after all most people qualify for earning for generation of income just to sustain living. Nobody educates himself for pleasure, as such. There is no abundance any where, sirs.
This means distribution of wealth is to be done carefully and meaningfully. Any single distortion displaces many areas already well placed and established.
Creation of more and more states will not solve economic problems. Economy is always based on the already existing demographic set up in agriculture areas concerned. If so there will not be too many peaks and too many lows in graphs, after all humans cannot survive without food and essential complementariness.
Industrial areas are susceptible to many weather changes unlike natural weather.
In fact the planning has miserably failed just because planners have put cart before horse.
Nehru just wanted to improve economy does not mean he wanted to keep agriculture as a low priority but instead he wanted Agriculture should be made sustainable better by governmental programs, as he knew without food nothing will survive specially living beings.
Administrative set ups with proper district arrangements only could achieve this balance already way shown by previous administrators prior to independence and you need not invent once again.
Politicians really wanted political power and wanted too many States to wheel and deal things in their own manner to meet their own agenda for personal gratification. And he knew the moneys to be lost to white ants and destroyed and that would create problems to Nation.
Small states creation would have lots of problems and every time the pie of revenue of government has to be sub divided in unmanageable nonviable distributions/allocations. These allocations would soon turn out to be white ants and destroy the system. Both Nehru and Vallabh bhai Patel resisted even re-organization of states.
But Potti Sriramulu created the problem of Linguistic states by inventing emotional ?culture of Telugus? an unreliable factor for economic development and all that and he died by fasting for 55 days or so and that led to reorganization of States in 1956.
In every state this cancer spread and it caused a backburner situation in economy-burning. Planning Commission has to find resources. That means higher taxes or inventing new tax regimes. This meant several governments formations and to house the governments new capitals have to be founded and that means a lot of resources needed, an unnecessary burden on the exchequer.
If politicians rationalized and integrated then naturally so many taxes would not have been invented as a burden on people who are already poor to very poor agriculturists. That was the reason why the Ryotwari Act came into being to provide marginalized agriculturists. Pitiable again we are creating Zamindars and very poor people in the name of economic development.
It favors only the Rich and Wealthy, at the very cost of agriculture by so called Special Export Zones or Special Economic Zones, by so called converting agricultural lands into non agricultural lands, just to develop real estates that will be used by rich and wealthy by throwing away poor and poorest farmers and their poverty stricken children. That is not the purpose of Indian Independence from the shackles of British.
If we wanted otherwise White man is better to harness the resources to the benefit of the rich and wealthy! Look at statistics.
Retail price of Moongdal shot up by 128% over the last two years or turdal by 112%, urad by 105%, Onions by 110%, sugar by 118%potato by 56%, rice by 44%, loose tea by 43%, Atta by 38% and wheat by25%, severe effects on meat and poultry at Delhi itself. 100% increase registered in respect of rice. In other cities still the same problem. Villages are severely hit, as the commodities either not available or if available only rich and wealthy farmers can buy. Poor are hungry and many people starving and some die. How long poor stoically accept this as fate and soon they will rise in ?unquellable? revolts. Do we really want this situation please, in the name of development? So Man Mohan Singh monetizes and immediately and subsidize food items, without any further delay. Being an economist himself very well knows (I am not carrying coal to New Castle!) stability of prices possible if everything is just being equal but that never happens is the principle of economics, after all every minute changes happen for very many reasons, over which nobody has control in the consumption (demand) and supply (providing) management is the another principle prevailing from the time immemorial. No Nobel laureate in Economics assure or vouchsafe ?constant stability? just because human nature is such to loot ( a white collar crime, difficult to be tracked) given an opportunity and that is very well played by traders and middlemen in the so called economic development and now by new traders the bankers and banks. You might have seen no bank listens to RBI guidelines though RBI helped providing liquidity to banks, including PSU banks and all of them invest surplus funds in Mutual funds to get arbitrage advantage and certainly not to alleviate the problems of poor people. His statement during election ?give me 100 days, I will rectify (but it is subject to constancy of situation at the time he uttered). No body can predict future but possibly meet the rainy days but when you pump funds it leads to catastrophic changes. See whether his own Agriculture minister is able to manage prices in favor of poor and needy but this agriculture minister will make all kinds of false assurances, just because he knows pretty well he cannot control his men in politics. Except Man Mohan Singh every other man in the treasury benches or the oppositions are just time servers to get into power somehow or other and that is the pity of this great Indian democracy. (Ends)
Monday, December 21, 2009
HAPPY X MAS TO ALL - SHARE YOUR LOVE WITH ALL IN HUMANITY!
GIFTS OF TIME AND LOVE ARE SURELY THE BASIC INGREDIENTS OF A TRULY MERRY CHRISTMAS.. - PEG BRACKEN
THIS IS BASIC MESSAGE OF CHRISTMAS : WE ARE NEVER ALONE... TAYLOR CALDWELL..
IWISH ALL MY READERS AND NON READERS AND ALL VISITORS A HAPPY X MAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR
THIS IS BASIC MESSAGE OF CHRISTMAS : WE ARE NEVER ALONE... TAYLOR CALDWELL..
IWISH ALL MY READERS AND NON READERS AND ALL VISITORS A HAPPY X MAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR
Thursday, December 17, 2009
reddy-a policeman's son mines karnataka and andhra states !
it is a pity how the politicians and business nexes loot the Nation?
You all would have heared about Janardhan Reddy of Bellary mines and Janardhan Reddy in collusion with YSR of AP, now YSR no more providentially practically looted mines of iron ore in AP and Karnataka.
Karnataka Lok Ayukta Mr. justice Santosh Hegde though wanted to hold the Karnataka Government wholly responsible for the illegal mining of Bellary by Reddys of Bellary but so far it did not prove effective as Reddys are in ministry and also a lot bureaucrats are in the pockets of Reddys. And yet unrelentingly Justice Hegde is trying to lay hand on these looters and as these reddys with collusion of late YSR also had been looting in Anantapur district forested hills for iron ore and this activity is going on happily with YSR government but now Supreme Court stayed mining activities in Ananthapur due to stay granted by Supreme Court on AP High Court stay since AP High court seem to have been bribed heavily by the Reddys...and further story will be posted next week or later!
You all would have heared about Janardhan Reddy of Bellary mines and Janardhan Reddy in collusion with YSR of AP, now YSR no more providentially practically looted mines of iron ore in AP and Karnataka.
Karnataka Lok Ayukta Mr. justice Santosh Hegde though wanted to hold the Karnataka Government wholly responsible for the illegal mining of Bellary by Reddys of Bellary but so far it did not prove effective as Reddys are in ministry and also a lot bureaucrats are in the pockets of Reddys. And yet unrelentingly Justice Hegde is trying to lay hand on these looters and as these reddys with collusion of late YSR also had been looting in Anantapur district forested hills for iron ore and this activity is going on happily with YSR government but now Supreme Court stayed mining activities in Ananthapur due to stay granted by Supreme Court on AP High Court stay since AP High court seem to have been bribed heavily by the Reddys...and further story will be posted next week or later!
ANATONIA MAINE (SONIA GANDHI)
By dr. g Balakrishnan, phd
Jacob Braude said ?Always behave like a duck ? Keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle with great vigor underneath.? Anatonia Maine did and that way she won the confidence of her mother in law in Smt. Indira Gandhi, our former Prime Minister, who was assassinated by her own thankless body guards like in a coup e?dat, just for her military forces entered in golden Temple as it gave succor to Bindranwale, a disgruntled Sikh whom the forces wanted to catch him alive as he started Kalisthan Movement and eliminated a lot of peace loving Sikhs in the interest of creating a separate state in Punjab state, to advance his own private ambitions to become like Ranjit Singh, the lion of Punjab during British regime. May be the Sikh body guards of Indira Gandhi had similar ambitions? No Sikh believes that body guards are some good Samaritans to be for the benefit of Sikhs. See today a Sikh is the PM of this country and he is a nominated prime minister by Mrs. Anatnio Marine otherwise known as Madam Sonia Gandhi though she was elected as an MP and in fact she was the Leader of her party, (the widow of Rajiv Gandhi who is the eldest son of Smt. Indira Gandhi) but he was also assassinated by an LTTE cadre in 1991, on 21st May.
She was born in a small town near Turin in Italy on 9 December 1946 in ?..She while learning English at Cambridge university of England (UK) met her boy friend in Rajiv. Rajiv was also a student of Cambridge doing his chosen course in Science to ultimately make himself as an airlines pilot, for he had no ambitions in Politics while his younger Sanjay had and in fact Smt. Indira Gandhi was grooming for political succession after her.
But the destiny proved otherwise. Before her second son Sanjay was killed in an air crash and per force she was in the meantime was straining her grand son Rahul Gandhi and he was imbibing her qualities. But in the meantime Smt. Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984.
Per force Rajiv was to wear her mantle and soon he was elected with his party with a thumping majority but unluckily he was assassinated in May 1991 and hence PV Narasimha Rao was nominated by Sonia Gandhi as he was a trusted person in Nehru and Gandhi?s household and he took the position as he was himself an astute politician but when he again inherited the PM?s office since occupied earlier by V P Singh who made India virtually empty of finances and PV Narasimha Rao has to make a strategic plan to get the treasury to run the 5 year term and he took in his cabinet Dr. Man Mohan Singh, a former Governor of Reserve Bank of India as Finance Minister though he was not elected as an MP at that time.
Soon the PM PVN devised a plan to take a large IMF loan to meet the contingency of funds and also that means IMF was insisting India should become Market driven economy and this proposition he accepted but yet heart of hearts PVN never wanted dismantle Mixed economic system touted by Nehru was obvious reasons that India should not become a country in any block floated at that time as India wanted to be completely non aligned with any power blocks. So he wanted to pay back all IMF loan in quarterly tranches and he did pay 2 or 3 tranches in his regime but his government could not win next elections.
In the meantime during his period he never fully opened the economy but yet the economy was moving ahead but BJP wanted to come to power and it did all kinds of ?tantrums? (strategies) to dislodge PVN?s government and it did achieve and Congress preferred to become opposition as it did not have enough number of members to form government.
In the meantime members like Pawar, Sangma, Madhav Rao Scindia, P Chidambaram& others and Kesari, as Congress President did their best to root out PVN?s influence in Gandhi?s family and hence he relegated to nothing and yet he died as a congress man.
Had he continued the economic growth might have been made possible, as he was a great strategist proved in Andhra politics and that made Smt. Indira Gandhi to get him to central government and he held all kinds of important portfolios and thus gained a powerful grip and he became adept in running national governments.
Had he been there in government, he would have maintained growth and India would have remained not insulated like today and perhaps we would not have suffered reverses in economies, as he had uncanny knack of keeping with him very capable brains in Dr. Man Mohan Singh, Chidambaram, Madhav Rao Scindia and others in bureaucrats people like Montek Singh Aluwalia as finance secretary
By dr. g Balakrishnan, phd
Jacob Braude said ?Always behave like a duck ? Keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle with great vigor underneath.? Anatonia Maine did and that way she won the confidence of her mother in law in Smt. Indira Gandhi, our former Prime Minister, who was assassinated by her own thankless body guards like in a coup e?dat, just for her military forces entered in golden Temple as it gave succor to Bindranwale, a disgruntled Sikh whom the forces wanted to catch him alive as he started Kalisthan Movement and eliminated a lot of peace loving Sikhs in the interest of creating a separate state in Punjab state, to advance his own private ambitions to become like Ranjit Singh, the lion of Punjab during British regime. May be the Sikh body guards of Indira Gandhi had similar ambitions? No Sikh believes that body guards are some good Samaritans to be for the benefit of Sikhs. See today a Sikh is the PM of this country and he is a nominated prime minister by Mrs. Anatnio Marine otherwise known as Madam Sonia Gandhi though she was elected as an MP and in fact she was the Leader of her party, (the widow of Rajiv Gandhi who is the eldest son of Smt. Indira Gandhi) but he was also assassinated by an LTTE cadre in 1991, on 21st May.
She was born in a small town near Turin in Italy on 9 December 1946 in ?..She while learning English at Cambridge university of England (UK) met her boy friend in Rajiv. Rajiv was also a student of Cambridge doing his chosen course in Science to ultimately make himself as an airlines pilot, for he had no ambitions in Politics while his younger Sanjay had and in fact Smt. Indira Gandhi was grooming for political succession after her.
But the destiny proved otherwise. Before her second son Sanjay was killed in an air crash and per force she was in the meantime was straining her grand son Rahul Gandhi and he was imbibing her qualities. But in the meantime Smt. Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984.
Per force Rajiv was to wear her mantle and soon he was elected with his party with a thumping majority but unluckily he was assassinated in May 1991 and hence PV Narasimha Rao was nominated by Sonia Gandhi as he was a trusted person in Nehru and Gandhi?s household and he took the position as he was himself an astute politician but when he again inherited the PM?s office since occupied earlier by V P Singh who made India virtually empty of finances and PV Narasimha Rao has to make a strategic plan to get the treasury to run the 5 year term and he took in his cabinet Dr. Man Mohan Singh, a former Governor of Reserve Bank of India as Finance Minister though he was not elected as an MP at that time.
Soon the PM PVN devised a plan to take a large IMF loan to meet the contingency of funds and also that means IMF was insisting India should become Market driven economy and this proposition he accepted but yet heart of hearts PVN never wanted dismantle Mixed economic system touted by Nehru was obvious reasons that India should not become a country in any block floated at that time as India wanted to be completely non aligned with any power blocks. So he wanted to pay back all IMF loan in quarterly tranches and he did pay 2 or 3 tranches in his regime but his government could not win next elections.
In the meantime during his period he never fully opened the economy but yet the economy was moving ahead but BJP wanted to come to power and it did all kinds of ?tantrums? (strategies) to dislodge PVN?s government and it did achieve and Congress preferred to become opposition as it did not have enough number of members to form government.
In the meantime members like Pawar, Sangma, Madhav Rao Scindia, P Chidambaram& others and Kesari, as Congress President did their best to root out PVN?s influence in Gandhi?s family and hence he relegated to nothing and yet he died as a congress man.
Had he continued the economic growth might have been made possible, as he was a great strategist proved in Andhra politics and that made Smt. Indira Gandhi to get him to central government and he held all kinds of important portfolios and thus gained a powerful grip and he became adept in running national governments.
Had he been there in government, he would have maintained growth and India would have remained not insulated like today and perhaps we would not have suffered reverses in economies, as he had uncanny knack of keeping with him very capable brains in Dr. Man Mohan Singh, Chidambaram, Madhav Rao Scindia and others in bureaucrats people like Montek Singh Aluwalia as finance secretary
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
global financial analysis
Global Financial crisis- a perception analysis
(By Dr. G. Balakrishnan, PhD, a public policy specialist)
Dr. Y V Reddy, Ex. RBI Governor, in his Ranganathan Memorial Lecture on 30 November highlighted on the following issues:
- Huge public funding of Finance sector in the West bloated balance sheets of Central banks still persist;
- Declining trends of outputs and Employment seems to have been arrested in some countries;
- Adverse effect/impact on economic activity and on Employment is still evident;
- Dubai crash developments in Financial market is a reminder of their possibility of ?Unexpected dangers? ahead;
- Huge uncertainties still remain in the trends towards travel to normalcy;
- Exit from unconventional measures and stimulus is being given;
- Managing crisis is indeed very critical(appears )to have been successful ? thus front loading profits, but the costs are back loaded;
- Distribution of burden among different sections of society of people in future is CONTENTIOUS;
- Rigorous growth drivers seem to be restored in seemingly ample measure, burden on Tax payer or(public services including health care and pressure on prices becoming Notable);
- Crisis Global - actions are some kind of National benefits could be (cosmetically) universal ? burdens in future on their account could have to be incurred at National levels (a doubtful problematic situation, (since not pragmatic);
- Exit is essential (if risk to growth abate)inflation Risks emerge with intensity;
- Exit is critical to very critical ( since premature exit may derail recovery and growth);
- Growth while delayed, exit may feed ?inflation?;
- Threaten growth over medium term;
- Every country should consider proper tools to exit crisis;
- Communication of policies and ?intents? become great challenges
(of interest of finance market participants and the interest of policy divergence);
- Divergences are not observed at the time of ?crises? though not in all economies ( a conceptual predilection):
- Two approaches to new Normalcy:-
-RETHINK ? A RETHINK OF FUNDAMENTALS
? IDEOLOGICAL AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS
OF MARKET ECONOMY;
_ (Practical terms reflected in informal chat with Chinese
Officials) their view ? ?Used to see the US as their teacher and now they realized their folly ??teacher keep making mistakes ? Bernanke accepted before US Congressional Hearings when he was making his case for second term recently) So China decided to quit the Class room! They express serious doubts about the validity
of Conventional wisdom after assessing economic performance of US and China ? E.g. China showed resurgence ?high growth in real sector for a prolonged period was possible consistent with stability without any significant development of Modern Free Market based ?Financial sector?;(not dear to China). Able to ward of ?inflationary pressures? if the currency is systematically remained devalued for a prolonged period;
- Initiatives to develop ?New Economic Thinking? (NET);
- (Advising board includes two Nobel Laureates of Economists)-
Current Great Recession (CGR) is comparable to Great Depression may result in such a fundamental Rethink theory, Practice and Institutions?:
Alternate View
- Markets benefit society and economy but some Excesses or aberrations took place that led to crisis after crisis. Need to be re-balanced within the broader but existing framework.
-Dubai Crumbled ? Realty fell to 75% low ? Indians and Britons are big investors there ? hurt demand for Indian Realty, at 10.25 a.m. on December 2nd.
Reasonable to assume - ?Destinations of Exit strategies
Currently under Consideration would be towards a ?New Normalcy? (yet ill-defined) re-balancing;
- Re-balancing in favor of State(presumption to be in favor of ?relative efficiency? of Markets ?rejig? to continue (but with clear understanding that it is presumption it could be rebutted when appropriate, with State acquiring the policy space to intervene at its discretion.
- RECOGNITION:
- ?Excessive financialization of Economy? ( with Cognizable disconnect between development(Real sectors ) goods and services finally consumed ? and in financial sector as critical role mobilizes resources;
- Finance contributes and allocates them efficiently/weal-being through a la variety of ways;
- Real issue determines appropriate level of financial sector development as well as he sophistication and Regulation ? promotes genuine ?innovation? and ?curbs? speculation;
- Excessive leverage in financial sector warrant correction then and there;
- Some curbs on financial sector relative to real sector seem to be part of ?rebalancing?;
- Take several firm steps: ? higher capital cushion curbs on managerial remuneration, changes in incentives frame work, taxes on financial transaction, measures for investor and consumer protection including certification of Safety on financial products restrictions on OTC trades, expanding scope and interest of regulator to intensify regulation and so on;
- Consensus for virtual REGULATION in major developed countries on financial sector needs a thorough overhaul wherever crises getting strengthened to save gullible investors and consumers, is a view advanced;
- Globalization of finances has significant to very significant risks, unlike globalization of trade, which is beneficial;
- Rebalancing could happen by globalization of Regulation or recalibrating exiting Regulation on financial sector with a combination of trade even;
- Re-balancing could happen globalizing regulation and recalibrating financial sect;
- Effort to develop globally acceptable standards of Regulation at Technical levels in Boards of Financial Stability (BFS);
- Renewed interest in Capital Control by instruments ?Tobin Tax? and strengthening of Regulation by host of countries may be indicative of reality of recalibrating of Globalization of Finance;
- Focus on Tax Havens and harmonize financial regulations. May not fully address issues of Tax arbitrage;
- Advocacy of Counter Cyclical Regulation affects balance between policy space available at National Level and assess compulsion of global finance;
- Authorities have to decide on weight to be given to National Level Economic Cycles and Global Economic cycles( unless it is assumed they still always converge;
- Counter Cyclical policies to be effective needs a lot of harmonization of policies and financial regulation of monetary and fiscal control authorities;
- Re-balancing of exercises in regulation of financial sector may have to address the broader issues of Policy Space of National authorities and governance of arrangements that oversee globalization of finance;
- Tobin Tax: James Tobin (Yale Nobel Laureate in Economics) argued ?Currency speculation - money moving internationally to bet on ?fluctuations in Exchange Rates? ? was having a DISRUPTIVE EFFECT on the World Economy. To reduce this disruption, a small tax, a trivial expense on Ever Exchange Currencies. Such a tax on people engaged in Foreign trade or Long Term investments but it would be a major disincentive for people trying to make a fast buck(on Euro or Yen) by out guessing the markets over the course of a few days or week(s).It would be ?to throw some sand in the well greased wheels?.
- Paul Krugman said ?Idea no where at the time. Much to his (Tobin?s) dismay it becomes a favorite hobby horse on anti-globalization.
- Turner Brown proposal in Congress in US would apply ?Tobin Tax? to all financial transactions ? not just those involving in foreign currency trade is very much in very much in Tobin spirit. A trivial expense for long term investor but it would deter much of ?churning that now takes place in our hyper sensitive financial markets ?.
(By Dr. G. Balakrishnan, PhD, a public policy specialist)
Dr. Y V Reddy, Ex. RBI Governor, in his Ranganathan Memorial Lecture on 30 November highlighted on the following issues:
- Huge public funding of Finance sector in the West bloated balance sheets of Central banks still persist;
- Declining trends of outputs and Employment seems to have been arrested in some countries;
- Adverse effect/impact on economic activity and on Employment is still evident;
- Dubai crash developments in Financial market is a reminder of their possibility of ?Unexpected dangers? ahead;
- Huge uncertainties still remain in the trends towards travel to normalcy;
- Exit from unconventional measures and stimulus is being given;
- Managing crisis is indeed very critical(appears )to have been successful ? thus front loading profits, but the costs are back loaded;
- Distribution of burden among different sections of society of people in future is CONTENTIOUS;
- Rigorous growth drivers seem to be restored in seemingly ample measure, burden on Tax payer or(public services including health care and pressure on prices becoming Notable);
- Crisis Global - actions are some kind of National benefits could be (cosmetically) universal ? burdens in future on their account could have to be incurred at National levels (a doubtful problematic situation, (since not pragmatic);
- Exit is essential (if risk to growth abate)inflation Risks emerge with intensity;
- Exit is critical to very critical ( since premature exit may derail recovery and growth);
- Growth while delayed, exit may feed ?inflation?;
- Threaten growth over medium term;
- Every country should consider proper tools to exit crisis;
- Communication of policies and ?intents? become great challenges
(of interest of finance market participants and the interest of policy divergence);
- Divergences are not observed at the time of ?crises? though not in all economies ( a conceptual predilection):
- Two approaches to new Normalcy:-
-RETHINK ? A RETHINK OF FUNDAMENTALS
? IDEOLOGICAL AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS
OF MARKET ECONOMY;
_ (Practical terms reflected in informal chat with Chinese
Officials) their view ? ?Used to see the US as their teacher and now they realized their folly ??teacher keep making mistakes ? Bernanke accepted before US Congressional Hearings when he was making his case for second term recently) So China decided to quit the Class room! They express serious doubts about the validity
of Conventional wisdom after assessing economic performance of US and China ? E.g. China showed resurgence ?high growth in real sector for a prolonged period was possible consistent with stability without any significant development of Modern Free Market based ?Financial sector?;(not dear to China). Able to ward of ?inflationary pressures? if the currency is systematically remained devalued for a prolonged period;
- Initiatives to develop ?New Economic Thinking? (NET);
- (Advising board includes two Nobel Laureates of Economists)-
Current Great Recession (CGR) is comparable to Great Depression may result in such a fundamental Rethink theory, Practice and Institutions?:
Alternate View
- Markets benefit society and economy but some Excesses or aberrations took place that led to crisis after crisis. Need to be re-balanced within the broader but existing framework.
-Dubai Crumbled ? Realty fell to 75% low ? Indians and Britons are big investors there ? hurt demand for Indian Realty, at 10.25 a.m. on December 2nd.
Reasonable to assume - ?Destinations of Exit strategies
Currently under Consideration would be towards a ?New Normalcy? (yet ill-defined) re-balancing;
- Re-balancing in favor of State(presumption to be in favor of ?relative efficiency? of Markets ?rejig? to continue (but with clear understanding that it is presumption it could be rebutted when appropriate, with State acquiring the policy space to intervene at its discretion.
- RECOGNITION:
- ?Excessive financialization of Economy? ( with Cognizable disconnect between development(Real sectors ) goods and services finally consumed ? and in financial sector as critical role mobilizes resources;
- Finance contributes and allocates them efficiently/weal-being through a la variety of ways;
- Real issue determines appropriate level of financial sector development as well as he sophistication and Regulation ? promotes genuine ?innovation? and ?curbs? speculation;
- Excessive leverage in financial sector warrant correction then and there;
- Some curbs on financial sector relative to real sector seem to be part of ?rebalancing?;
- Take several firm steps: ? higher capital cushion curbs on managerial remuneration, changes in incentives frame work, taxes on financial transaction, measures for investor and consumer protection including certification of Safety on financial products restrictions on OTC trades, expanding scope and interest of regulator to intensify regulation and so on;
- Consensus for virtual REGULATION in major developed countries on financial sector needs a thorough overhaul wherever crises getting strengthened to save gullible investors and consumers, is a view advanced;
- Globalization of finances has significant to very significant risks, unlike globalization of trade, which is beneficial;
- Rebalancing could happen by globalization of Regulation or recalibrating exiting Regulation on financial sector with a combination of trade even;
- Re-balancing could happen globalizing regulation and recalibrating financial sect;
- Effort to develop globally acceptable standards of Regulation at Technical levels in Boards of Financial Stability (BFS);
- Renewed interest in Capital Control by instruments ?Tobin Tax? and strengthening of Regulation by host of countries may be indicative of reality of recalibrating of Globalization of Finance;
- Focus on Tax Havens and harmonize financial regulations. May not fully address issues of Tax arbitrage;
- Advocacy of Counter Cyclical Regulation affects balance between policy space available at National Level and assess compulsion of global finance;
- Authorities have to decide on weight to be given to National Level Economic Cycles and Global Economic cycles( unless it is assumed they still always converge;
- Counter Cyclical policies to be effective needs a lot of harmonization of policies and financial regulation of monetary and fiscal control authorities;
- Re-balancing of exercises in regulation of financial sector may have to address the broader issues of Policy Space of National authorities and governance of arrangements that oversee globalization of finance;
- Tobin Tax: James Tobin (Yale Nobel Laureate in Economics) argued ?Currency speculation - money moving internationally to bet on ?fluctuations in Exchange Rates? ? was having a DISRUPTIVE EFFECT on the World Economy. To reduce this disruption, a small tax, a trivial expense on Ever Exchange Currencies. Such a tax on people engaged in Foreign trade or Long Term investments but it would be a major disincentive for people trying to make a fast buck(on Euro or Yen) by out guessing the markets over the course of a few days or week(s).It would be ?to throw some sand in the well greased wheels?.
- Paul Krugman said ?Idea no where at the time. Much to his (Tobin?s) dismay it becomes a favorite hobby horse on anti-globalization.
- Turner Brown proposal in Congress in US would apply ?Tobin Tax? to all financial transactions ? not just those involving in foreign currency trade is very much in very much in Tobin spirit. A trivial expense for long term investor but it would deter much of ?churning that now takes place in our hyper sensitive financial markets ?.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
telengana agitation
Chances of telengana formation is totally centered around on the fate of Hyderabad City. AS none of AP MLAs would like to lose Hyderabad city to to Telengana. If it has to be formed only alternate solution is make Hyderabad city a unopn administered territory and that kind of trends will surface in all states in India. So it is preferable to appoint a commision for further reorganisation of States like 1956 and that will give the rteport in those lines of separating already existing Metros. Metros are creating the problem for creation of states with in states. If that is done well you can have a lot of sma;ll cities becoming metros in due course of time and thsat will augment growth.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
parents keep away from from childrenif you want them to attain importance in life!
Parents not to influence your children?s life after all they have their own agenda, if parents want their children to be very bright in their own pursuits
By Dr. G. Balakrishnan
?Children? Khalil Gibran thought:
?They are sons and daughters of
Life?s longing for itself.
They come through you,
But not from you.
And though they are with you yet they
Belong not to you.
You may give them your love,
But not your thoughts,
For they have their own thoughts.
You may house their bodies but not,
Their souls,
For their souls dwell in the house
Of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not
Even in your dreams.
You may strive to be like them, but seek
Not to make them like you.?
This is the thought line ? See how it is true, after all a child can just out perform the parent, but it is rare parent can let go and allow him to soar. It is a storm in the cup. This is wee seen the world over. So God is in ever thing. How can you call the child is my own, after all you are not some one one?s replica.
So a child is usually better looking, taller, better adapted to the environs; he is also more likely to understand instinctively the need of the times.
I will cite here some examples from Infosys top founder executives families - Don?t be surprised. This is to say what is the point you save for your children a lot wealth so too for your grandchildren, when you know tastes differ among your children but that is happening with ever parent and grand parent, after all your guidance is okay for some time and there after child flies away like a bird chirping its own sounds of music of life.
Narayana Murthy?s , chief Mentor of Infosys, daughter Akshata is getting ready to launch an eponymously branded Clothing Line She says she will have an outfit that will employ some 40 plus persons. She believes in Social activism. She married a third generation British Indian, her class mate at Stanford Rishi Sunaq.
His son is pursuing a doctoral program in Computer Science.
Shibulal?s Sruti is launching a Mediterranean Grill at Bangalore. So too this girl feels like Akshata by her interest areas.
This means most of them evidence the fact Making money doesn?t seem to drive them; they seem very highly conscious about honoring their inheritance. What keeps them ticking is the idea of empowering others through employment opportunities.
That is when you travel to learn you learn new things.
See Mahesh Bhat?s son Rahul Bhatt by his Christian first wife Kiran ( known as Loraine Bright), now Mahesh is living with second wife actor Soni Razdan ( a Muslim fromKashmir). Rahul according to his father Mahesh says, that Rahul is like him a suffers from dysplexia and he could not clear his high school and Rahul is a fitness instructor, recently allegations splashed, in press that he entertained Headley a terrorist but this Rahul is supposed to be unnecessarily implicated by the police as Rahul and another fitness instructor, at the advice of
Mahesh Bhatt, these boys reported to the Mumbai police,to prove themselves as patriots.
I brought this film director areas of work did not attract his son. That is the point. Even when parents separate, the children get a rude jolt in life as Rahul had. And yet his cup of tea is not films direction or production.
You could have seen Uddhav Thackeray is not cut for politics while his father Bal Thackeray forced him . So parents should not dictate their children to do this and that, after all children nurture different goal in their life. That is what Kahlid Gibran says in his thought lines.
Parents be warned do not decide what your children should do and if you understand this thought line, naturally you will not do all things what you do today and you can live a peaceful life and make others to live peacefully!(Ends)
By Dr. G. Balakrishnan
?Children? Khalil Gibran thought:
?They are sons and daughters of
Life?s longing for itself.
They come through you,
But not from you.
And though they are with you yet they
Belong not to you.
You may give them your love,
But not your thoughts,
For they have their own thoughts.
You may house their bodies but not,
Their souls,
For their souls dwell in the house
Of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not
Even in your dreams.
You may strive to be like them, but seek
Not to make them like you.?
This is the thought line ? See how it is true, after all a child can just out perform the parent, but it is rare parent can let go and allow him to soar. It is a storm in the cup. This is wee seen the world over. So God is in ever thing. How can you call the child is my own, after all you are not some one one?s replica.
So a child is usually better looking, taller, better adapted to the environs; he is also more likely to understand instinctively the need of the times.
I will cite here some examples from Infosys top founder executives families - Don?t be surprised. This is to say what is the point you save for your children a lot wealth so too for your grandchildren, when you know tastes differ among your children but that is happening with ever parent and grand parent, after all your guidance is okay for some time and there after child flies away like a bird chirping its own sounds of music of life.
Narayana Murthy?s , chief Mentor of Infosys, daughter Akshata is getting ready to launch an eponymously branded Clothing Line She says she will have an outfit that will employ some 40 plus persons. She believes in Social activism. She married a third generation British Indian, her class mate at Stanford Rishi Sunaq.
His son is pursuing a doctoral program in Computer Science.
Shibulal?s Sruti is launching a Mediterranean Grill at Bangalore. So too this girl feels like Akshata by her interest areas.
This means most of them evidence the fact Making money doesn?t seem to drive them; they seem very highly conscious about honoring their inheritance. What keeps them ticking is the idea of empowering others through employment opportunities.
That is when you travel to learn you learn new things.
See Mahesh Bhat?s son Rahul Bhatt by his Christian first wife Kiran ( known as Loraine Bright), now Mahesh is living with second wife actor Soni Razdan ( a Muslim fromKashmir). Rahul according to his father Mahesh says, that Rahul is like him a suffers from dysplexia and he could not clear his high school and Rahul is a fitness instructor, recently allegations splashed, in press that he entertained Headley a terrorist but this Rahul is supposed to be unnecessarily implicated by the police as Rahul and another fitness instructor, at the advice of
Mahesh Bhatt, these boys reported to the Mumbai police,to prove themselves as patriots.
I brought this film director areas of work did not attract his son. That is the point. Even when parents separate, the children get a rude jolt in life as Rahul had. And yet his cup of tea is not films direction or production.
You could have seen Uddhav Thackeray is not cut for politics while his father Bal Thackeray forced him . So parents should not dictate their children to do this and that, after all children nurture different goal in their life. That is what Kahlid Gibran says in his thought lines.
Parents be warned do not decide what your children should do and if you understand this thought line, naturally you will not do all things what you do today and you can live a peaceful life and make others to live peacefully!(Ends)
Friday, December 4, 2009
ANATONIA MAINE (SONIA GANDHI)
Jacob Braude said ?Always behave like a duck ? Keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle with great vigor underneath.? Anatonia Maine did and that way she won the confidence of her mother in law in Smt. Indira Gandhi, our former Prime Minister, who was assassinated by her own thankless body guards like in a coup e?dat, just for her military forces entered in golden Temple as it gave succor to Bindranwale, a disgruntled Sikh whom the forces wanted to catch him alive as he started Kalisthan Movement and eliminated a lot of peace loving Sikhs in the interest of creating a separate state in Punjab state, to advance his own private ambitions to become like Ranjit Singh, the lion of Punjab during British regime. May be the Sikh body guards of Indira Gandhi had similar ambitions? No Sikh believes that body guards are some good Samaritans to be for the benefit of Sikhs. See today a Sikh is the PM of this country and he is a nominated prime minister by Mrs. Anatnio Marine otherwise known as Madam Sonia Gandhi though she was elected as an MP and in fact she was the Leader of her party, (the widow of Rajiv Gandhi who is the eldest son of Smt. Indira Gandhi) but he was also assassinated by an LTTE cadre in 1991, on 21st May.
She was born in a small town near Turin in Italy on 9 December 1946 in ?..She while learning English at Cambridge university of England (UK) met her boy friend in Rajiv. Rajiv was also a student of Cambridge doing his chosen course in Science to ultimately make himself as an airlines pilot, for he had no ambitions in Politics while his younger Sanjay had and in fact Smt. Indira Gandhi was grooming for political succession after her.
But the destiny proved otherwise. Before her second son Sanjay was killed in an air crash and per force she was in the meantime was straining her grand son Rahul Gandhi and he was imbibing her qualities. But in the meantime Smt. Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984.
Per force Rajiv was to wear her mantle and soon he was elected with his party with a thumping majority but unluckily he was assassinated in May 1991 and hence PV Narasimha Rao was nominated by Sonia Gandhi as he was a trusted person in Nehru and Gandhi?s household and he took the position as he was himself an astute politician but when he again inherited the PM?s office since occupied earlier by V P Singh who made India virtually empty of finances and PV Narasimha Rao has to make a strategic plan to get the treasury to run the 5 year term and he took in his cabinet Dr. Man Mohan Singh, a former Governor of Reserve Bank of India as Finance Minister though he was not elected as an MP at that time.
Soon the PM PVN devised a plan to take a large IMF loan to meet the contingency of funds and also that means IMF was insisting India should become Market driven economy and this proposition he accepted but yet heart of hearts PVN never wanted dismantle Mixed economic system touted by Nehru was obvious reasons that India should not become a country in any block floated at that time as India wanted to be completely non aligned with any power blocks. So he wanted to pay back all IMF loan in quarterly tranches and he did pay 2 or 3 tranches in his regime but his government could not win next elections.
In the meantime during his period he never fully opened the economy but yet the economy was moving ahead but BJP wanted to come to power and it did all kinds of ?tantrums? (strategies) to dislodge PVN?s government and it did achieve and Congress preferred to become opposition as it did not have enough number of members to form government.
In the meantime members like Pawar, Sangma, Madhav Rao Scindia, P Chidambaram& others and Kesari, as Congress President did their best to root out PVN?s influence in Gandhi?s family and hence he relegated to nothing and yet he died as a congress man.
Had he continued the economic growth might have been made possible, as he was a great strategist proved in Andhra politics and that made Smt. Indira Gandhi to get him to central government and he held all kinds of important portfolios and thus gained a powerful grip and he became adept in running national governments.
Had he been there in government, he would have maintained growth and India would have remained not insulated like today and perhaps we would not have suffered reverses in economies, as he had uncanny knack of keeping with him very capable brains in Dr. Man Mohan Singh, Chidambaram, Madhav Rao Scindia and others in bureaucrats people like Montek Singh Aluwalia as finance secretary
Jacob Braude said ?Always behave like a duck ? Keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle with great vigor underneath.? Anatonia Maine did and that way she won the confidence of her mother in law in Smt. Indira Gandhi, our former Prime Minister, who was assassinated by her own thankless body guards like in a coup e?dat, just for her military forces entered in golden Temple as it gave succor to Bindranwale, a disgruntled Sikh whom the forces wanted to catch him alive as he started Kalisthan Movement and eliminated a lot of peace loving Sikhs in the interest of creating a separate state in Punjab state, to advance his own private ambitions to become like Ranjit Singh, the lion of Punjab during British regime. May be the Sikh body guards of Indira Gandhi had similar ambitions? No Sikh believes that body guards are some good Samaritans to be for the benefit of Sikhs. See today a Sikh is the PM of this country and he is a nominated prime minister by Mrs. Anatnio Marine otherwise known as Madam Sonia Gandhi though she was elected as an MP and in fact she was the Leader of her party, (the widow of Rajiv Gandhi who is the eldest son of Smt. Indira Gandhi) but he was also assassinated by an LTTE cadre in 1991, on 21st May.
She was born in a small town near Turin in Italy on 9 December 1946 in ?..She while learning English at Cambridge university of England (UK) met her boy friend in Rajiv. Rajiv was also a student of Cambridge doing his chosen course in Science to ultimately make himself as an airlines pilot, for he had no ambitions in Politics while his younger Sanjay had and in fact Smt. Indira Gandhi was grooming for political succession after her.
But the destiny proved otherwise. Before her second son Sanjay was killed in an air crash and per force she was in the meantime was straining her grand son Rahul Gandhi and he was imbibing her qualities. But in the meantime Smt. Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984.
Per force Rajiv was to wear her mantle and soon he was elected with his party with a thumping majority but unluckily he was assassinated in May 1991 and hence PV Narasimha Rao was nominated by Sonia Gandhi as he was a trusted person in Nehru and Gandhi?s household and he took the position as he was himself an astute politician but when he again inherited the PM?s office since occupied earlier by V P Singh who made India virtually empty of finances and PV Narasimha Rao has to make a strategic plan to get the treasury to run the 5 year term and he took in his cabinet Dr. Man Mohan Singh, a former Governor of Reserve Bank of India as Finance Minister though he was not elected as an MP at that time.
Soon the PM PVN devised a plan to take a large IMF loan to meet the contingency of funds and also that means IMF was insisting India should become Market driven economy and this proposition he accepted but yet heart of hearts PVN never wanted dismantle Mixed economic system touted by Nehru was obvious reasons that India should not become a country in any block floated at that time as India wanted to be completely non aligned with any power blocks. So he wanted to pay back all IMF loan in quarterly tranches and he did pay 2 or 3 tranches in his regime but his government could not win next elections.
In the meantime during his period he never fully opened the economy but yet the economy was moving ahead but BJP wanted to come to power and it did all kinds of ?tantrums? (strategies) to dislodge PVN?s government and it did achieve and Congress preferred to become opposition as it did not have enough number of members to form government.
In the meantime members like Pawar, Sangma, Madhav Rao Scindia, P Chidambaram& others and Kesari, as Congress President did their best to root out PVN?s influence in Gandhi?s family and hence he relegated to nothing and yet he died as a congress man.
Had he continued the economic growth might have been made possible, as he was a great strategist proved in Andhra politics and that made Smt. Indira Gandhi to get him to central government and he held all kinds of important portfolios and thus gained a powerful grip and he became adept in running national governments.
Had he been there in government, he would have maintained growth and India would have remained not insulated like today and perhaps we would not have suffered reverses in economies, as he had uncanny knack of keeping with him very capable brains in Dr. Man Mohan Singh, Chidambaram, Madhav Rao Scindia and others in bureaucrats people like Montek Singh Aluwalia as finance secretary
PM warns all urban municipalities to buckle up!
Yesterday wheh addressing NREGA conference warned all urbab cities and town municipalities that they should buckle up to develop the cities and towns to fit to the new influx of popolation insearch of jobs. Infact he expects the cities and towns should build infrastructure to meet the situation of doubling population in cities and towns, Will they?
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